FutureChina Global Forum 2012

Day 1, Monday 9 July 2012
0800hrs - 0900hrs Registration
0900hrs - 0910hrs Welcome and opening remarks
0910hrs - 1030hrs

Opening plenary session
Where is China’s economy heading in a context of global slowdown and uncertainty? 

The Chinese leadership is committed to maintain growth at a socially acceptable level despite the grim outlook for the global economy and its impact on Chinese exports. At the same time it has been working hard to achieve a soft landing as the housing and credit bubble has begun to deflate.  But as China’s growth could fall below 9% in 2012 how will Beijing manage a delicate balancing act to sustain its economy without creating a new credit bubble and unleashing inflation again?   

Keynote Speakers
Tharman SHANMUGARATNAM 尚达曼, Deputy Prime Minister & Minister for Finance, Singapore
MA Weihua 马蔚华, Executive Director, President and CEO, China Merchants Bank, People's Republic of China
WU Jianmin 吴建民, Executive Vice-Chairman, China Institute of Innovation and Development Strategy, People's Republic of China
Ronnie CHAN 陈启宗, Chairman, Hang Lung Properties Limited, Hong Kong SARModerated by:
Claude SMADJA, President, Smadja & Smadja, Switzerland

SESSION SUMMARY

1030hrs - 1100hrs Networking break
1100hrs - 1215hrs

Panel discussion
How will the vulnerabilities in China’s banking system be managed?

Alarm bells have been ringing about the deterioration of the quality of assets of Chinese banks, and about the increase of off-balance sheet activities to circumvent government supervision. The real estate bubble has also increased risks for the financial and banking system. Although most of the largest Chinese banks are considered to be resilient to isolated shocks, an accumulation of risk factors might have a very negative impact. Continuing to move ahead on reforming the interest rate policy and improving risk management practices are among some priority steps that Beijing needs to consider. What prospects for implementation would further help consolidate the country’s banking system?

Panelists:
LIM Cheng Teck 林清德, CEO & Executive Vice Chairman, Standard Chartered Bank (China) Limited, People's Republic of China
YANG Yanqing 杨燕青, Deputy Editor-in-Chief, China Business News, People's Republic of China
Wendy DOBSON, Professor and Co-director, Institute for International Business, Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, Canada

Moderated by:
Claude SMADJA, President, Smadja & Smadja, Switzerland

SESSION SUMMARY

1100hrs - 1215hrs

Briefing
Coming up soon: Silicon valleys made in China

China is investing massively to develop new technologies, becoming a global leader in R&D. The Zhongguancun “Science & technology zone” in Beijing is now a hub of technological development and is often referred to as China’s Silicon Valley. China spends twice as much as the US in green energy projects and is now the world leader in installed wind power capacity. However, despite the huge increase in the number of patents, the eco-system for innovative start-ups still does not have enough incubators and angel investors.  Some big companies have started to support start-ups and new clusters for innovation are beginning to emerge. How will this trend develop over the next few years and what will be its impact on the Chinese economy? 

Panelists:

Simon ECKERSLEY 艾茗森, Founder & CEO, HAO Capital, People's Republic of China
LU Gang 卢刚, Founder and Chief Editor, TechNode.com, People's Republic of China 
Bruce MCKERN 马科恩, Professor of International Business, CEIBS, Co-Director of CEIBS Centre on China Innovation, People's Republic of China
Matt WANG 王阳, Vice President, China Development Laboratories, IBM, People's Republic of China

Moderated by:
TAN Yinglan 陈映岚, Head (Projects), National Research Foundation, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore 

SESSION SUMMARY

1230hrs - 1415hrs

Dialogue over lunch 
China in transition… But towards where? 

As conventional wisdom would have it, China is in transition and economic, social, psychological changes keep developing at a breakneck pace. The general assumption of most observers in the Western world has been that the economic liberalization process started in 1978 would ultimately lead to some kind of parallel political change. However, the fact is that nobody – presumably not even the leadership in Beijing - may be able to tell for sure towards what China is transitioning. Do the usual patterns of evolution that we have seen in countries such as Korea apply to China? To what extent does China’s exceptionalism mean that China’s evolution will continue to follow unique and unprecedented pattern? What can we assume about the way China will continue to evolve in the coming years? 

Keynote Speakers:
MA Weihua 马蔚华, Executive Director, President and CEO, China Merchants Bank, People's Republic of China
Clyde PRESTOWITZ, President, Economic Strategy Intstitute, USA

Moderated by: 
Ding WEI 丁玮, Head for China & Senior Managing Director, Temasek International Pte Ltd, People's Republic of China

SESSION SUMMARY

1430hrs - 1545hrs

Briefing
China as a leader in green technology 

China is spending twice as much as the US in green energy projects and has become the world leader in installed wind capacity. According to a World Wildlife Fund Report, China production of green technologies has increased by 77% in 2010. China Greentech Initiative estimates the Chinese market for green technologies to be between US$500 million and one trillion dollars. Will China be able to sustain such a growth in the coming years? What role will the development of green technology play in the overall Chinese economic strategy in the coming years? 

Panelists:
GAO Jifan 高纪凡, Chairman & CEO, Trina Solar, People's Republic of China 
Juliet JIANG, Senior Vice President, Broad Group, People's Republic of China
OON Jin Teik 温仁德, Group Executive Vice President and CEO China, Hyflux Ltd, Singapore

Moderated by: 
Alexander WAN 温华, Senior Advisor, China Daily Asia Pacific, Hong Kong SAR 

SESSION SUMMARY

1430hrs - 1545hrs

Interactive session
The blog as China’s new cultural explosion
 

China’s blogosphere has literally exploded over the last few years with Weibo Sina having now around 280 million users and a higher penetration than Twitter in the US. At the same time, Tencent QQ has attracted around 720 million active user accounts. Chat programs and blogs are one of the most striking cultural phenomena in today’s China, allowing hundred of millions of people – especially the young generation – to become an active and growing voice within Chinese society. How are these new forces interacting with – and impacting on - the existing institutions and the way perceptions are shaped and power is exercised in China? What does China’s blogosphere tell us about the evolving priorities and changing nature of Chinese society? What significance does this phenonmenon have for the future evolution of China? 

Panelists:
Hu Zhengrong 胡正荣, Professor of Communication, Director of the National Center for Radio & TV Studies and Vice President, Communication University of China, People's Republic of China
LI Hongwei 李宏伟, Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Global Times English Edition, People’s Republic of China
XIE Baisan 谢百三, Director, Institute of Financial and Capital Markets, Fudan University, People's Republic of China

Moderated by:
LIM Jim Koon 林任君, Editor-in-Chief, Chinese Newspapers Division, Singapore Press Holding, Singapore

SESSION SUMMARY 

1430hrs - 1545hrs

Debate
How will China be able to create the talent needed to develop a more knowledge-based economy? 

Despite the fact between 6 and 7 million university graduates join the job market every year, China is suffering from a talent shortage in major industries such as the automotive or the financial sectors, which are creating bottlenecks for growth. This talent shortage will become even more crucial as China endeavors to move towards a knowledge-based, innovation-driven economy. How will the education system adjust to the new needs of the economy? How will companies manage to nurture the talent resources necessary to sustain their expansion? What can China learn from successful experiences in other countries?    

Panelists:
Jeffrey LEHMAN 雷蒙, Founding Vice Chancellor, NYU Shanghai, People's Republic of China
WANG Huiyao 王辉耀, Director-General, Center for China and Globalization, People's Republic of China
WU Xiaobo 吴晓波, Dean, School of Management, Zhejiang University, People's Republic of China

Moderated by:
Claude SMADJA, President, Smadja & Smadja, Switzerland 

SESSION SUMMARY

1600hrs - 1730hrs

Plenary roundtable
Assessing China’s agenda on the international scene 

What are the strategic objectives that China intends to achieve on the international scene, on it's a geopolitical as well as macroeconomic fronts? To what extent and under what timeframe will China evolve as a challenger or as a stakeholder – or both - in the present international order? Does its agenda in the Asia Pacific region place it on a collision course with the US, as the Obama administration reasserts its strategic priority on this region?  

Panelists:
Wendy DOBSON, Professor and Co-director, Institute for International Business, Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, Canada
Tommy KOH 许通美, Ambassador-At-Large, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Singapore
Liselotte ODGAARD, Associate Professor, The Royal Danish Defense College, Copenhagen, Denmark
Yoshihide SOEYA 添谷芳秀, Director, Institute of East Asia Studies, Keio University, Japan
WANG Yiwei 王义桅, Executive Dean, Institute of International and Public Affairs, Tongji University, People's Republic of China

Moderated by:
Claude SMADJA, President, Smadja & Smadja, Switzerland 

SESSION SUMMARY

1730hrs - 1745hrs Networking break
1745hrs - 1900hrs

Interactive session
Reading between the lines on China’s leadership transition 

The Bo Xilai scandal has highlighted the issues and tensions still marking the preparation process in China's once in a decade leadership transition. Will Bo Xilai's eviction mean a smoother transition process or is it – on the contrary – an indication that the infighting and jockeying for position is even fiercer than ever?  What do the present developments tell about the ability of the new leadership to run a tight ship in the critical years ahead, when major changes in the economic model and adjustments in the political system are to be implemented? 

Panelists:
Bo Zhiyue 薄智跃, Senior Research Fellow, East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore
Douglas PAAL 包道格, Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, USA
HUANG Jing 黄靖, Professor and Director, Center on Asia and Globalization, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore

Moderated by:
Tommy KOH 许通美Ambassador-at-Large, Singapore 

SESSION SUMMARY 

1745hrs - 1900hrs 

Debate 
Towards the end of the “China price”?   

Rising wages in the manufacturing sector, an appreciation of the Renminbi, pressures on manpower and talent are contributing to the reduction of the price differential for products produce in China and in other emerging market economies. In fact, some China-based manufacturers are now beginning to shift production in countries such as Vietnam. Can Chinese corporations achieve the kind of productivity gains that would help absorb rising costs? Are we beginning to see the end of the “China price”, which has terrified China’s competitors for many years ? And would the end of the “China price” mark the shift of the Chinese economy towards more knowledge-based and innovation driven activities?    

Panelists:
Dirk MOENS 丁凯, Secretary General, European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, People's Republic of China
Clyde PRESTOWITZ, President, Economic Strategy Intstitute, USA
Enki TAN 陈应毅, Executive Chairman, GITI Tire Company Limited, Singapore
Kobus van der WATH 古柏, Founder & Group Managing Director, The Beijing Axia, People's Republic of China

Moderated by:
YU Hairong 于海荣, Senior Reporter, Caixin Media, People's Republic of China 

SESSION SUMMARY 

1745hrs - 1900hrs 

Panel discussion
The Singapore-China connection: A privileged springboard 

Singapore has developed into a key gateway for access and know-how about the Chinese market, in addition to providing Chinese companies with a springboard to the rest of the world. Approximately 3000 Chinese firms are registered in Singapore, 149 of which are listed on the Singapore stock exchange. This trend is expected to continue. Singapore’s deep understanding of how Western countries operate, its geographic proximity to Shanghai and Hong Kong and its emphasis on shipping, oil and gas, alternative energy, waste and water treatment, have proven to be a winning combination. How can Singapore maximize its potential as a useful, value-added partner for China as well as for other parties in their dealings with China? 

Panelists:
HO Tong Yen 何东雁, CEO, Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City Investment and Development Co. Ltd, People's Republic of China
TEO Eng Cheong 张永昌, CEO, International Enterprise Singapore, Singapore
WANG Hairong 王海荣, Executive Chairman and CEO, RH Energy Ltd (Singapore), Singapore
Yeoh Keat Chuan 杨吉全, Managing Director, Economic Development Board, Singapore

Moderated by:
CHAN Soo Sen 曾士生, Former Minister of State, Singapore 

SESSION SUMMARY 

1900hrs - 2000hrs Cocktail reception
2000hrs - 2200hrs

Dinner dialogue
How are IT Entrepreneurs changing China? 

Keynote Speaker:
LEE Kai-Fu 李开复, Chairman and CEO, Innovation Works, People’s Republic of China

Moderated by:
Tian Wei 田薇, Anchor, China Central Television, People's Republic of China 

SESSION SUMMARY

Day 2, Tuesday 10 July 2012

0845hrs - 0945hrs

Plenary discussion
How is China doing in projecting its soft power?

 

There are today 350 Confucius Institutes in the world. In a 2007 speech to the National People’s Congress President Hu Jintao has set the goal “to enhance culture as part of the soft power of our country”. Official Chinese media outfits are now broadcasting daily foreign language programs and it is estimated that Beijing is spending more than US$ 9 billion on spreading its message and influence to audiences worldwide. However, how much do censorship and restrictions on the freedom of expression impact China’s image and its ability to project its soft power?  

 

Panelists:

Kenneth CHOI 朴楚义, Executive Vice President, International Business, The Chosunilbo, Republic of Korea

FENG Wei 冯炜, Deputy Secretary-General, China Institute for Innovation and Development Strategy, People's Republic of China

LAI Hongyi 赖洪毅, Associate Professorand PhD Program Director, University of Nottingham, United Kingdom

ZHENG Yongnian 郑永年, Professor & Director, East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore

Moderated by:

Claude SMADJA, President, Smadja & Smadja, Switzerland

 

 

0845hrs - 0945hrs

Panel discussion (in collaboration with China Daily Asia Leadership Forum)

China's new breed of entrepreneurs
 
A new generation of entrepreneurs has emerged in China, keen to put their mark on the business scene, not only focused on the domestic market but looking for outbound expansion. How do they look at their role in China's economy? What are they looking for and what make them similar and yet different from entrepreneurs in other parts of the world?
 
Panelists:
FENG Jun 冯军, Chairman & President, Aigo Digital Technology Information  Co. Ltd, People's Republic of China
HUANG Jianping 黄剑平, Founder, Jpigroup Inc., People's Republic of China

Juliet JIANG, Senior Vice President, Broad Group, People's Republic of China

Moderated by:

Alexander WAN 温华, Senior Advisor, China Daily Asia Pacific, Hong Kong SAR

 

SESSION SUMMARY

1000hrs - 1100hrs

Panel discussion
From demographic dividend to demographic crisis?

 

The latest census has revealed that from 2000 to 2010, China’s population increased by 0.57%, which is half the rate of the previous decade. The country’s fertility rate is now at 1.4%, far below the threshold of 2.1% necessary to maintain a stable population number. The fact is that China’s population is not only growing much more slowly but is also experiencing a fast aging process. The number of people aged above 60 has increased by one third between 2000 and 2010. The one child policy has also has the perverse effect of aggravating the gender imbalance with much more boys than girls being born every year. Will China be able to avoid a demographic crisis? How will it tackle the major social and economic challenges created by this trend?

 

Panelists:

FANG Jin 方晋, Deputy Secretary-General, China Development Research Foundation, People’s Republic of China

JIN Weigang 金维刚, Director-General, Research Institute for Social Security, Ministry of Human Resource and Social Security, People's Republic of China

WANG Feng 王丰, Director, Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy, People's Republic of China

Moderated by:

Tian Wei 田薇, Anchor, China Central Television, People's Republic of China


SESSION SUMMARY 

1000hrs - 1100hrs

Roundtable discussion

Moving from imbalances to sustainability: What is driving the changes?

 

Sustainability of economic growth and social systems is now a top priority goal for the China leaders and it is the focus of the 12th Five-Year Plan. The complexity of the challenges requires a multi-pronged approach combining new macroeconomic as well as new social policies, such as the new emphasis on the effective delivery of social services to the people. Moving towards sustainability also requires a new look at how China could leverage on foreign partnerships.

 

Panelists:

FENG Lun 冯仑, Chairman of the Board, Vantone Holdings, People's Republic of China

LIU Yong 刘勇, Director, Development Research Center of The State Council, People's Republic of China

Christian MURCK 孟克文,President, American Chamber of Commerce in China, People's Republic of China 

Victor YUAN 袁岳, Chairman, Horizon Research Consultancy Group, People's Republic of China

Moderated by: 

ZHANG Jiwei 张继伟, Managing Editor of Caxin.com and Editorial Board Member of Caixin Media, People's Republic of China

 

SESSION SUMMARY

1115hrs - 1215hrs

Panel discussion
Tapping the next Number One E-commerce market in the world

 

30 million additional people go on-line to shop every year in China, according to a recent report from BCG. Over the next three years, China will overtake the US as the number one e-commerce market in the world. This exploding growth is sustained by the fast development of high-speed access throughout the country. What shape the consumption patterns of Chinese e-shoppers? What does it take to leverage the opportunities created by this booming market?

 

Panelists:

JI Qi 季琦, Founder, Ctrip.com, Home Inns and Hotels, and China Lodging Group, People's Republic of China

Timothy STRATFORD 夏尊恩, Managing Partner, Covington and Burling, Beijing Office, People's Republic of China

Carrie YU 余叶嘉莉, Partner, China and Asia Pacific Retail and Consumer Leader, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Hong Kong SAR

Edward YU 于扬, Chairman & CEO, Analysys International, People's Republic of China

Moderated by:

Lai Kok Fung 赖国芳, Co-Founder and CEO, BuzzCity, Singapore

 

SESSION SUMMARY 

1115hrs - 1215hrs

Panel discussion
Should we start worrying about social unrest in China?

 

According to estimates, there were close to 200,000 riots and manifestations of social unrest in China in 2010, and the level of social tension is rising. Whether it is protest against environmental hazards and breaches of food safety, or against corruption and blatant economic injustices, or protest against demolitions of houses and forced relocations, the root causes for social discontent are multiplying as people become more prone to vent their frustrations. So far the government has been able to contain social discontent. Will that continue to be the case – especially if economic conditions become less favorable? At what stage could a “critical mass” of social discontent become a serious concern for social and political stability? And how is the government going to react to this challenge, as a transition of power to a new generation of leadership is underway? 

 

Panelists:

FU Hualing 傅华伶, Professor, Faculty of Law, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR

QIN Hui 秦晖, Professor, Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences, Tsinghua University, People's Republic of China

XIONG Peiyun 熊培云, Author, People's Republic of China

Moderated by:

WOO Keng Choong 胡敬中, Deputy Chief Editor, Chinese Current Affairs, MediaCorp, Singapore

 

SESSION SUMMARY 

1245hrs - 1415hrs

Keynote over lunch

 

Keynote Speaker:

LEE Hsien Loong 李显龙, Prime Minister, Singapore

Moderated by:

ZHENG Yongnian 郑永年, Professor & Director, East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore

 

SESSION SUMMARY 

1415hrs - 1430hrs

Closing

Others

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