FutureChina Global Forum 2013

Day 1, Monday 8 July 2013

0800hrs – 0900hrs

Registration

0900hrs – 0910hrs

Welcome and opening remarks
0910hrs – 1030hrs
Opening plenary session
Living with single digit growth
 
After 30 years of growth at a break-neck speed, China is now entering a new economic development phase where growth will presumably be restricted to the single digit dimension in the foreseeable future. After the lowest growth rate of the last 10 years was registered in 2012, the economy is expected to grow at around 8-8.5% in 2013; but such a rate will become unsustainable without new reforms to address the bottlenecks and the structural imbalances in the economy.
  • What are the most pressing reforms needed to keep the economy at the top end of single digit growth?
  • What is needed to ensure that lower growth does not translate into unmet expectations that would accentuate social unrest?
  • Does Beijing has the means and the will to enforce the discipline needed for a more quality-oriented growth in the provinces, which on many occasions remain focused on a purely quantitative approach to growth?
Keynote Speakers:
Fredrick CHIEN Fu 钱复, Chairman, Cathay Charity Foundation, Taiwan
Victor CHU 诸立力, Chairman, First Eastern Investment Group, Hong Kong SAR
Nicholas LARDY 尼古拉斯拉迪, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, United States of America 
 
Moderated by:
Claude SMADJA, President, Smadja & Smadja,Switzerland
 
SESSION SUMMARY
1030hrs – 1100hrs
Networking break  
1100hrs – 1230hrs
Panel discussion
Will China still be the factory of the world but in a different way?
 
In 2012, China’s working-age population (age 15 - 59) declined for the first time by 3.5 million people, and this trend is set to accelerate over the next two decades. In the South, some factories are suffering from a dire shortage of workers, sometimes up to 50% of their required capacity. At the same time, steady increase of wages and rising demands for better employee benefits are constantly eroding the advantage long held by the “China price”. US companies have recently been known to relocate production out of China back onshore. Is the era of China being the factory of the world now drawing to a close? Will China's own massive domestic demand keep these factories going?
  • What do these refocusing of policies and shifts of activities already under way mean for foreign and Chinese investors?
  • What type of industrial and business landscape should we expect to see emerging over the next 5 - 10 years?
Panelists:
Adam DUNNETT 唐亚东, Secretary General, European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, People's Republic of China
Ann LEE 李雨, Adjunct Professor of Economics and Finance, New York University, United States of America 
Nick YANG 杨宁, Prominent Chinese Angel Investor, Co-founder, Kongzhong , Chinaren.com, People's Republic of China  
Moderated by:
LI Zengxin 李增新,Deputy Chief, International News Desk, Caixin Media, People's Republic of China
 
1100hrs – 1230hrs
Panel discussion
Inching towards the Yuan as a global trade currency 
 
The internationalization of the Yuan has been steadily picking up because of a growing number of agreements signed by Beijing with other countries to use their own national currencies for bilateral trade instead of the US dollar. It is expected that by 2015, at least 50% of China trade with emerging market countries will be settled in Yuan. Increasingly, more Yuan-based securities are also made available for investors. However, making the Yuan a global trade currency with the ability to compete with the dollar requires additional steps such as making sure the currency is fully convertible for financial transactions and providing greater access to Chinese stocks and other assets to foreign investors, thereby opening up its financial markets. The new Shenzhen currency zone that the government plans to develop is expected to be the experimental ground for the new reforms that a greater internationalization of the Yuan requires. 
  • How fast and how far is the leadership ready to go to drive the internationalization of the Chinese currency?
  • What structural changes will the further internationalization of Yuan bring to the Chinese economy and China’s position in the global economy?
Panelists:
FANG Xing Hai 方星海, Director, Shanghai Municipal Office of Financial Services, People’s Republic of China
LIM Cheng Teck 林清德, CEO & Executive Vice Chairman, Standard Chartered Bank (China) Limited, People's Republic of China
Nicholas LARDY 尼古拉斯拉迪, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, United States of America 
Samuel TSIEN 钱乃骥, Group Chief Executive Officer, OCBC Bank, Singapore
 

Moderated by:
ZHANG Lifen 张力奋, Associate Editor, Financial Times and Editor-in-Chief, FTChinese.com
 
1100hrs – 1230hrs
Panel discussion
Tracking China’s new consumption trends
 
Consumption needs as well as consumer behavior are evolving at break-neck speed in China. While the young consumers' thirst for all products and services new and cool is unquenchable, the silver market is now just shining through as seniors are more willing to spend on quality products, services and entertainment, instead of saving every Yuan like their parents.
  • What are the key trends shaping consumption patterns in China?
  • What factors could further boost domestic consumption to make it the growth engine that China's restructuring economy needs?
  • What should manufacturers and service providers anticipate and prepare for – in the next wave of expansion of Chinese consumption?
Panelists:
Emily CHONG 钟子茵, Head of Marketing, Asia and EMEA, frog, People's Republic of China
Tara HIREBET, Head of Asia Pacific, Trendwatching.com, Singapore
LIM Beng Chee 林明志 ,Chief Executive Officer, CapitaMalls Asia Limited, Singapore  
TEO Eng Cheong 张永昌, Chief Executive Officer, International Enterprise Singapore, Singapore
 
Moderated by: 
Yael SMADJA, President, Smadja & Smadja, USA 
 

1245hrs – 1400hrs

Keynote over lunch
Data explosion and the shifting role of Chinese media 
 
Keynote Speaker:
LIU Changle 刘长乐, Chairman & CEO, Pheonix Satellite Television Co., Ltd, People's Republic of China
 
Dialogue partner:
LIM Jim Koon 林任君, Editor-in-Chief, Chinese Newspapers Division, Singapore Press Holdings, Singapore
 
1415hrs – 1545hrs
Plenary Roundtable
China’s new geography of power: the who’s who in the new leadership
 
While the world is focused on Xi Jinping's and Li Keqiang's ascension to power, it is also important to note that a whole new panel of top leadership has been appointed to steer China’s course for the next 10 years.
  • In what way do their backgrounds tell us about their possible policy orientations?
  • How is the balance of forces shaping up inside the new seven-member Standing Committee of the Politburo?
  • Who are the rising stars among the 25 Politburo members? 
Panelists:
Jean-Pierre CABESTAN 高敬文, Professor & Head, Department of Government and International Studies, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong SAR
Kenneth CHOI, Editor, Political News, TV Chosun, Republic of Korea
Benjamin LIM 林洸耀, North Asia Specialist Correspondent, Reuters News, Thomson Reuters
YANG Dali 杨大利, Professor, Department of Political Science and Faculty Director, University of Chicago Center in Beijing, University of Chicago, United States of America
 
Moderated by:
HUANG Jing 黄靖, Professor and Director, Centre on Asia and Globalisation, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore
 

1545hrs – 1615hrs

Networking break 

1615hrs – 1730hrs

Debate
What would win the new leadership the “Mandate of Heaven”?
 
Over the last 20 years, the deeply rooted cultural notion of the “Mandate of Heaven” had been won by China’s contemporary leaders through their ability to ensure high growth and higher standards of living for the people. However, as double digit growth slowed to single and standards of living compromised by worsening environmental conditions, coupled with growing frustration about corruption and abuses of power, China’s leaders are at risk of losing their “Mandate of Heaven”.
  • How committed is the new leadership in its conviction to restore its “Mandate of Heaven”?
  • What kind of actions would resonate more with the people?
  • Could corrective actions by the leadership threaten the very basis of power in Beijing?
Panelists:
BO Zhiyue 薄智跃, Senior Research Fellow, East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore
PEI Minxin 裴敏欣, Director, Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies, Claremont McKenna College, United States of America
David SHAMBAUGH 沈大伟, Director, China Policy Program, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, United States of America
WANG Zhengxu 王正绪, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, China Policy Institute, University of Nottingham, United Kingdom
 
Moderated by: 
WOO Keng Choong 胡敬中, Deputy Chief Editor, Chinese Current Affairs, MediaCorp Pte Ltd, Singapore
 

1615hrs – 1730hrs

Debate
Towards a new boost to the private sector? What it could mean for China’s economy
 
Beijing’s new leadership has made clear its intention to ensure a greater role for the private sector in China’s economy. One of the most immediate steps to move in that direction would be to provide a more level playing field to private companies with respect to the preferential treatment in the areas of financing, land and energy - "specials" that SOEs had taken for granted all these while. This means reversing trends and uprooting entrenched practices. While strengthening the role of the private sector is crucial to China’s shift towards a more sustainable growth model, this policy is expected to face major resistance and obstacles as it threatens the SOEs entrenched interests. Key areas of discussion include:
  • How serious is the new leadership in wanting to enhance the private sector’s role and part in China’s economy?
  • What kind of practical steps will the new leadership undertake in the coming months?
  • How will an enhanced role for the private sector help reshape China's economy?
Panelists:
Henry CHENG 郑秉泽, Chief Executive Officer, Chongbang Group, Hong Kong SAR
TAN Kong Yam 陈光炎, Director, Asia Competitiveness Institute, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore
YUAN Xucheng 袁绪程, Deputy Secretary-General, China Society of Economic Reform, People's Republic of China
ZHANG Lifen 张力奋, Associate Editor, Financial Times and Editor-in-Chief, FTChinese.com
 
Moderated by:
ZHOU Yong 周勇, Deputy Chief Editor, Caixin Video, People's Republic of China
 

1615hrs – 1730hrs

Panel discussion
How does China look at China?
 
The Chinese people are today looking at their own country with different eyes. Pride about the country’s achievements over the last 30 years and of China’s heightened status on the world stage is mixed with lament of the erosion of key, deep-rooted Chinese values due to overly rapid changes.
  • What are factors shaping the Chinese’ self-perceptions and that of their own country. And how is this perception evolving?
  • What roles do nationalism, pride over economic success, and the sense of a rich cultural heritage play in creating the image that the Chinese have of their country and its new role in the world?
Panelists:
Adrian FISK, Photographer / Film Maker, United Kingdom 
Stanley LOH 罗家良, Ambassador of the Republic of Singapore to the People's Republic of China, Singapore   
WANG Gungwu 王赓武, Chairman, East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore
 
Moderated by:
TUNG Soo Hua 董素华, News Presenter & Editor, MediaCorp Private Limited, Singapore
 

1745hrs – 1900hrs

Panel discussion
Looking at the new culture emerging in China
 
With 350 million Chinese in constant communication using the Weibo, there is no underestimating the impact this new phenomenon have on the country’s cultural landscape in the wider sense of the term. The fast expanding blogging universe not only reflects an aspiration for individuality and increase social involvement, it is also a revealing magnifier of China’s social issues and frustrations which the leadership cannot ignore. To a great extent, the Weibo is now a channel for the Chinese to express their opinions.
  • What are the characteristics of China's emerging new culture with the rapid development of social media?
  • How are individualistic aspirations embedded in this new culture coexisting with the more collectivistic traditional values that had shaped China’s cultural?
Panelists:
HU Yong 胡泳, Associate Professor, Feature & Documentary Production, School of Journalism and Communication, Peking University, People's Republic of China 
James MCGREGOR 麦健陆, Senior Counselor,  APCO Worldwide, People's Republic of China
 
Moderated by:
ZHOU Zhao Cheng 周兆呈, Editor, Zaobao Online & Crossroads, Singapore Press Holdings, Singapore

1745hrs – 1900hrs

Panel discussion
The road from “Made in China” to “Created in China”
 
Chinese corporations are now becoming innovators in a range of industries such as telecom, renewable energy, pharmaceuticals, on-line retailing and consumer electronics. However, more often than not, these have been gradual and incremental innovations rather than game-changing breakthroughs. Besides government policies aimed at promoting national innovation, a star driving force has emerged, namely innovations driven by China’s massive and increasingly sophisticated domestic market.
  • What type of competencies do Chinese companies need to acquire in order to breakthrough?
  • What roles can the private sector play in advancing China’s innovation capabilities in the coming years?
  • What is the time horizon for China to secure a place in the top global innovation league? 
Panelists:
CUI Zheng 崔铮, Director, Printable Electronics Research Center, Suzhou Institute of Nanotech, Chinese Academy of Sciences, People's Republic of China
KANG Yan 康雁, Partner & Vice President, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Greater China, People's Republic of China
LIU Dianbo 刘殿波, President & Executive Chairman, Luye Pharma Group, People's Republic of China
 
Moderated by:
TAN Yinglan 陈映岚, Adjunct Assistant Professor, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
 

1745hrs – 1900hrs 

Panel discussion
The race for a sustainable pension system: What is at stake?
 
From 2010 - 2030, the number of people aged 60 and above will double from 180 to 360 million. The famous mention of China risking to becoming old before getting rich reflects a major concern for Beijing. The new leadership is in the old race against time to build a nationwide pension system sound enough to bear the financial burden of a rapidly aging population without compromising growth in the future. At the moment, about one third of the country’s provinces do not have enough funds to pay for the pensions of retirees residing in urban areas.
  • How can China address its pension deficit that risks widening in the coming years?
  • What measures should pension system reform include?
  • How can the social security gap between different groups – especially the migrant workers – be addressed?
  • How is pension system reform impacting China’s future overall economic performance?   
Panelist:
FENG Jin 封进, Associate Dean, Faculty of Economics, Fudan University, People's Republic of China
HU Yuwei 胡玉玮, China Representative (Pensions and Insurance), BBVA Group, People's Republic of China
ZHENG Bingwen 郑秉文, Head, Global Pension Fund Research, China Academy of Social Sciences, People's Republic of China 
 
Moderated by:
Claude SMADJA, President, Smadja & Smadja,Switzerland
 

1900hrs – 2000hrs

Cocktail reception

2000hrs – 2200hrs

Gala Dinner

Keynote Speaker:
Tharman SHANMUGARATNAM 尚达曼, Deputy Prime Minister & Minister for Finance, Singapore

Dialogue Partner: 
CHAN Heng Chee 陈庆珠, Ambassador-at-Large, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Singapore
 
SESSION SUMMARY
Day 2, Tuesday 9 July 2013

0900hrs – 1015hrs

Roundtable
Is China able and ready to tackle its food, water, air challenges?
 
One of China’s most crucial challenges will be to maintain its food and water security over the next 30 years. A drastic overhaul of productivity in the agricultural sector is needed as receding arable land races to meet demands of exceeding food consumption. China’s per capita water resource is only one third of the world average and is projected to decline in the years ahead. The same kind of challenges exists with respect to air pollution. The government now recognizes situation to be far more serious in most urban centers than what official data has acknowledged so far.
  • Can Beijing provide realistic policy changes to address its food/water/air challenges?
  • How will drastic corrective measures impact China’s economic trajectory?
Panelists:
Colin CARTER, Director, Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics, University of California (Davis Campus), United States of America 
Carla FREEMAN 傅瑞珍, Associate Director, China Studies Program, The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, United States of America
OON Jin Teik 温仁德,Group Executive Vice President & CEO China, Hyflux Ltd, Singapore 
Debra TAN, Director, China Water Risk, Hong Kong SAR
ZHANG Shiqiu 张世秋, Professor, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, People's Republic of China 
 
Moderated by:
Simon TAY 戴尚志, Chairman, Singapore Institute of International Affairs and Senior Consultant, WongPartnership LLP, Singapore
 

0900hrs – 1015hrs

Panel discussion
Will the contest in the Asia Pacific region define the US-China relationship? 
 
The Obama administration’s “Pivot to Asia” policy and Washington’s drive of the Trans Pacific Partnership are seen by Beijing as moves to contain China – even as US asserts the contrary. The fact is that the contest for power and influence in the Asia Pacific region will be a key defining factor in shaping the relationship between the US and China in the foreseeable future. This is a delicate balancing act between two super powers. While competing on many fronts, the two countries are growing increasingly interdependent and are forced to cooperate on a number of major issues crucial to their respective economic and strategic security.
  • What are the factors that will impact the contest of influence in the Asia Pacific region?
  • What are the boundaries that both Washington and Beijing should be aware of in order to avoid conflicts and preserve peace?
  • How do countries in the region view the US-China contest, and what is at stake for them? How could they possibly influence the outcome of that contest?     
Panelists:
Kishore MAHBUBANI 马凯硕, Dean and Professor in the Practice of Public Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore
David SHAMBAUGH 沈大伟, Director, China Policy Program, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, United States of America
SUN Zhe 孙哲, Professor, Institute for International Studies and Director, Center for US-China Relations, Tsinghua University, People’s Republic of China
Hugh WHITE, Professor of Strategic Studies, School of International, Political & Strategic Studies, Australian National University, Australia
 
SESSION SUMMARY

1015hrs – 1045hrs

Networking break

1045hrs – 1200hrs

Panel discussion
What could make China financial markets take off at long last?

China stock markets have fallen by about 60% since their peak in 2007. While there is necessity for systematic improvement of market regulations to create more transparency, reliability and greater depth, there has been little progress until last year. Beijing now seems keen to accelerate reforms to improve the IPO issuing system, to widen channels through which foreign investors can buy stocks, and to increase the quota of Renminbi-qualified foreign investors. However, a greater concern from listed corporations for shareholders’ value is also crucially needing heed in order to attract more investors, along with a much closer alignment to transparency standards that investors expect.
  • How serious is Beijing now in making its financial markets more efficient and thus more attractive?
  • What priority actions would help change the perceptions of domestic and foreign investors?     
Panelists:
CHEN Long 陈龙, Associate Dean & Director,  Research Center of Asset Valuation, Cheung Kong, People’s Republic of China
CHEW Sutat, Executive Vice-President, Singapore Exchange Ltd, Singapore
Victor CHU 诸立力, Chairman, First Eastern Investment Group, Hong Kong SAR
ZHAO Xijun 赵锡军, Deputy Director, Finance and Securities Institute, Renmin University of China, People’s Republic of China
 
Moderated by:
Ann LEE 李雨, Adjunct Professor of Economics and Finance, New York University, United States of America 
 
SESSION SUMMARY

1045hrs – 1200hrs

Panel discussion
China and ASEAN: Managing a complex relationship
 
Despite China’s territorial disputes with its neighbours and Beijing’s increased military capabilities which is a concern to Asian countries, China-ASEAN economic relations have continued to develop. Trade increased at an average rate of 20% a year and two-way investments continue to grow at a steady pace, while discussions on establishing a China-ASEAN Free Trade Area commenced in 2010.
  • Do the two parties have the political will to ensure that territorial disputes do not impede the expansion of economic linkages?
  • What are necessary considerations to promote win-win solutions to the on-going territorial disputes?
  • Are there grounds for ASEAN to be concerned about China’s growing clout and assertiveness? If so, how should these concerns be addressed?
Panelists:
Mohamed JAWHAR Hassan, Chairman, Institute of Strategic & International Studies, Malaysia
Meidyatama SURYODININGRAT, Editor-in-Chief, The Jakarta Post, Indonesia
XU Ningning 许宁宁, Executive Vice Secretary-General, China-ASEAN Business Council, People's Republic of China
ZHENG Yongnian 郑永年, Professor & Director, East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore
 
Moderated by:
Warren FERNANDEZ 华仁•费南德斯 , Editor, The Straits Times, Singapore Press Holdings,  Singapore
 
1200hrs – 1315hrs
Plenary roundtable
What answers to the structural distortions in China’s economy and social structure 
 
China’s economy remains deeply distorted by structural imbalances: Domestic consumption is unable to propel economic growth; the wealth distribution gap continues to widen; manufacturing industries’ overcapacity is increasing; environmental degradation is becoming more serious than ever; new constraints to sustainable growth is becoming more apparent.
  • What policies need to be implemented to effectively shift the growth focus towards domestic consumption?
  • What needs to be done to improve the innovative capabilities of Chinese enterprises?
  • What are the factors that would contribute to the development of China's Services sector? 
  • What are the next steps required to further open up China's economy? Are structural changes necessary? 
Panelists:
CHEN Kang, Director (MPAM) and Professor, Singapore Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore 
Yukon HUANG 黄育川, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, United States of America 
WAN Guanghua 万广华, Principal Economist of Asian Development Bank & Founding Director of Yunnan University's Research Institute for Indian Ocean Economies (RIIO) 
 
Moderated by:
CHEN Jingchun 陈璟春, Director, International Department, Xinhuanet, People's Republic of China 
 

1330hrs – 1500hrs

Keynote over lunch
Key questions about China’s rise
 
Panelists:
Kishore MAHBUBANI 马凯硕, Dean and Professor in the Practice of Public Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore 
YANG Dali 杨大利, Professor, Department of Political Science and Faculty Director, University of Chicago Center in Beijing, University of Chicago, United States of America
 
Moderated by: 
Claude SMADJA, President, Smadja & Smadja, Switzerland
 

Others

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